Search This Blog

Monday, January 31, 2011

What's going on in Egypt??

Newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman reached out to opposition groups in a bid to end Egypt’s unrest as demonstrators urged a million people to take to the streets today and force President Hosni Mubarak from office.
The anti-Mubarak movement received a boost yesterday from the Egyptian military, which said it recognized “the legitimacy of the people’s demands,” and promised not to fire on peaceful protests.
The announcement by Suleiman -- one of Mubarak’s closest advisers -- that he would open talks was made on Egyptian state television. Thousands of protesters erupted in cheers in Tahrir Square, the downtown plaza which honors the 1952 revolution in which the Egyptian military overthrew a constitutional monarchy and proclaimed a republic.
Opposition groups called for all Egyptians to take part in a nationwide strike.
“The people just want Mubarak to leave,” said Nabil Abdel Fattah, director of the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.“And making some compromises does not work with this new generation that led the uprising. What the regime is trying to do is to try and win time and go back to how it was before.”
Earlier in the day, Mubarak sought to quell unrest by appointing new Cabinet members, including Mahmoud Wagdy as interior minister to take over from Habib El-Adli, who had been denounced by the protesters. Samir Radwan, a former economist at the International Labor Organization, takes over as finance minister from Youssef Boutros-Ghali.
Government’s Priority
Suleiman, on state TV, said the government’s priority is to restore confidence in the economy and to fight corruption.
State TV later reported that the talks between the Mubarak regime and some of opponents had begun, but didn’t identify participants.
Egyptian bonds fell, pushing yields on 10-year debt to a record high, after Moody’s Investors Service lowered the country’s credit rating to Ba2 from Ba1 and the outlook to negative from stable, warning of a “significant rise in political event risk.”
The yield on the 5.75 percent notes due in April 2020 climbed 10 basis points to 7.073 percent at 6:13 p.m. in Cairo. That was the highest close since the debt was first sold in April last year.
Egypt’s stock exchange will be closed today for a third straight day, state television reported. Egypt’s benchmark EGX 30 stock index plunged 11 percent on Jan. 27, the most since October 2008.
Oil surged to the highest price in more than two years in New York and Brent crude topped $100 a barrel as a seventh day of unrest in Egypt raised concern that supplies may be disrupted.


Copy from Bloomberg

We all know that there are some political issues in Egypt, but is it important enough to affect the world's stock market? I don't think so.
Egypt Suez Canal is only way for crude oil transportation between Mediterranean and Red Sea, and there are 8% of the global oil have to transport t through the canal.  If the situation in Egypt keep going worse, the global oil transportation of the canal would be suspended, and it  would be a heavy blow to global trading activities. Therefore, there is a large-scale withdrawal of funds in stock markets, and resulting in a small drop of global stock market . The Hong Kong stock market fell around 287 points this morning!
However, I think Egypt's crisis is exaggerated. The stock market has overreacted.
First, the size of the Egyptian economy is not big. Their real GDP of 2010 is 5,000 billion, rank 27th in the global economy. The main export of Egypt is only cotton, so there is a limited impact on the global economy even if the Egyptian economy collapse.

Undeniably, the Suez Canal is one of the world's most important transportation centers, the suspension of canals will have negative impact on world's economy. However, precisely because the Suez Canal is so important to Egypt and the world's economy, whether President Hosni Mubarak, the "new government", or the United States will try to ensure the economic activity of the canal is smooth.
So, I think the problem in Egypt won't post a big impact either on the global stock market or economy.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Kevin! It's Susana. Wow nice blog and the protests in Egypt are intense.

    ReplyDelete